Fold equity
How often a bet must make them fold to break even, and how much less a semi-bluff needs.
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How often a bet must make them fold to break even, and how much less a semi-bluff needs.
Pure bluff: you only win when they fold.
| They fold | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 0% | -50 | Loss |
| 10% | -35 | Loss |
| 20% | -20 | Loss |
| 30% | -5 | Loss |
| 40% | +10 | Profit |
| 50% | +25 | Profit |
| 60% | +40 | Profit |
| 70% | +55 | Profit |
| 80% | +70 | Profit |
| 90% | +85 | Profit |
| 100% | +100 | Profit |
The pot is 100 and you bet 50. A pure bluff needs 50 ÷ 150 = 33.3% folds to break even. With a flush draw you still have about 35% when called: being called is worth 0.35 × 200 − 50 = +20, so the bet profits even if nobody folds. Drop that equity to 20% and being called is 0.2 × 200 − 50 = −10, so it breaks even at roughly 9.1% folds.